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UK eta EBren: Better off atera, ez?




Zure erregistroa baimendutako moduetan edukia eskaintzeko eta zure ezagutza hobetzeko erabiltzen dugu. Harpidetza edozein unetan har dezakezu.

_83123602_71204328David Cameron has promised a referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union by the end of 2017. Here is a summary of the key arguments for and against British membership.

Are there any viable options for Britain leaving the EU?

If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will have to negotiate a new trading relationship with what would now be a 27 member organization, to allow British firms to sell goods and services to EU countries without being hit by excessive tariffs and other restrictions.


Better off out: Britain could negotiate an "amicable divorce", but retain strong trading links with EU nations, say those campaigning for Britain's exit.

There are several potential scenarios:

  • The Norwegian model: Britain leaves the EU and joins the European Economic Area, giving it access to the single market, with the exception of some financial services, but freeing it from EU rules on agriculture, fisheries, justice and home affairs
  • The Swiss model: Britain emulates Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU but negotiates trade treaties on a sector-by-sector basis
  • The Turkish model: The UK could enter into a customs union with the EU, allowing access to the free market in manufactured goods but not financial services
  • The UK could seek to negotiate a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the Swiss model but with better access for financial services and more say over how rules and standards are implemented
  • The UK could make a clean break with the EU, relying on its membership of the World Trade Organization as a basis for trade

Better off in: An "amicable divorce" is a pipe dream, pro-EU campaigners argue. France, Germany and other leading EU nations would never allow Britain a "pick and mix" approach to the bloc's rules. Norway and Switzerland have to abide by many EU rules without any influence over how they are formed. Negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement could take years and have an uncertain outcome. And if Britain went for a completely clean break with the EU its exports would be subject to tariffs and would still have to meet EU production standards, harming the competitiveness of British business.

What would be the impact on British jobs?

The run-up to the EU referendum is likely to be dominated by competing claims about how many millions of jobs will be lost or gained by Britain's exit. All such claims come with a health warning. Coming up with a precise figure is difficult as there is no way of knowing if threats by foreign companies to scale back their operations in the UK would come to pass or, indeed, how many jobs would be created by the reshaped economy that might emerge in the wake of an exit.

Better off out: There would be a jobs boom as firms are freed from EU regulations and red tape, say those arguing for an exit, with small- and medium-sized companies who don't trade with the EU benefiting the most. In its recent paper, the EU Jobs Myth, the free market Institute for Economic Affairs seeks to debunk the claim that 3-4 million jobs would be lost if Britain left. "Jobs are associated with trade, not membership of a political union, and there is little evidence to suggest that trade would substantially fall between British businesses and European consumers in the event the UK was outside the EU," it argues. "The UK labour market is incredibly dynamic, and would adapt quickly to changed relationships with the EU."

Better off in: Millions of jobs would be lost as global manufacturers moved to lower-cost EU countries. Britain's large, foreign-owned car industry would be particularly at risk. "The attractiveness of the UK as a place to invest and do automotive business is clearly underpinned by the UK's influential membership of the EU," said a KPMG report on the car industry last year. The financial services sector, which employs about 2.1 million people in the UK, also has concerns about a British exit. "The success of the UK financial services industry is to a large extent built on EU Internal Market legislation. To abandon this for some untried, unknown and unpredictable alternative would carry very significant risks," said global law firm Clifford Chance in a report by think tank TheCityUK last year.

What about the impact on the economy as a whole?

Much would depend on the trade deals Britain managed to negotiate with the EU and rest of the world after its exit.

The best-case scenario, according to think tank Open Europe, is that the UK would be better off by 1.6% of GDP a year by 2030. That is assuming the UK carried out widespread deregulation after its exit and managed to strike favourable trade deals. The think tank adds: "A far more realistic range is between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain mixes policy approaches".

The Centre for Economic Performance, at the London School of Economics, says the worst-case scenario is a 6.3% to 9.5% reduction in GDP, "a loss of a similar size to that resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008/09". The best case, according to their analysis, is a loss of 2.2% of GDP.

What about immigration?

Better off out: Britain would regain full control of its borders. UKIP wants to see a work permit system introduced, so that EU nationals would face the same visa restrictions as those from outside the EU, which it says would reduce population growth from current levels of 298,000 a year to about 50,000. This would create job opportunities for British workers and boost wages, as well as easing pressure on schools, hospitals and other public services.

Better off in: Britain might have to agree to allow free movement of EU migrants as the price of being allowed access to the free market. In any case, immigration from the rest of the EU has been good for Britain's economy. The UK's growth forecasts are based, in part, on continued high levels of net migration. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility says the economy relies on migrant labour and taxes paid by immigrants to keep funding public services.

Would Britain save money in membership fees?

The UK's net contribution to the EU, taking into account the rebate, was £11.3bn in 2013. That is more than four times what it was in 2008. It is about the same amount as the UK government spends on transport every year.

Better off out: The UK would save billions in membership fees, and end the "hidden tariff" paid by UK taxpayers when goods are exported to the EU, caused by red tape, waste, fraud and other factors.

Better off in: The UK's contribution to the EU budget is a drop in the ocean compared with the benefits to business of being in the single market.

What would be the effect on trade?

Better off out: The EU is not as important to British trade as it used to be, and continuing turmoil in the eurozone will make it even less so. Even if Britain did not manage to negotiate a free trade deal with the EU it would not be as disastrous as EU-enthusiasts claim, argues economist Roger Bootle in his book The Trouble with Europe: "It would place the UK in the same position as the US is currently in, along with India, China and Japan, all of which manage to export to the EU relatively easily." The UK would be free to establish bilateral trade agreements with fast-growing export markets such as China, Singapore, Brazil, Russia and India through the World Trade Organisation.

Better off in: The EU is the UK's main trading partner, worth more than £400bn a year, or 52% of the total trade in goods and services. Complete withdrawal from the EU would see trade barriers erected, with car exports to the EU, for example, facing a 15% tariff and imports a tariff of 10%. "The idea that the UK would be freer outside the EU is based on a series of misconceptions, that a medium-sized, open economy could hold sway in an increasingly fractured trading system dominated by the US, the EU and China; that the EU makes it harder for Britain to penetrate emerging markets; and that foreign capital would be more attracted to Britain's economy if it were no longer part of the single market," the pro-EU Centre for European Reform said in a recent report.

Would the UK's influence in the world change?

Better off out: The UK would remain a key part of NATO and the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, with a powerful global voice in its own right. The Eurosceptic Bruges Group wants an end to the "discredited" principle that Britain acts as a transatlantic bridge between the US and Europe, saying the country should make self-reliance its guiding principle.

Better off in: Stripped of influence in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, Britain would find itself increasingly ignored by Washington and sidelined on big transnational issues such as the environment, security and trade. America and other allies want Britain to remain in the EU. The UK risks becoming a maverick, isolated state if it leaves.

What would happen to Britons working in Europe, and EU citizens working in the UK?

Better off out: Britain would gain full control of its own borders, with migration in and out of the country regulated solely by British law. It would be more difficult for EU citizens to move to the UK, although those already living here are unlikely to be removed.

Better off in: A lot would depend on what kind of deal was reached with the other EU nations. Britons may have to apply for visas to enter EU countries and those already living there may face integration rules, such as proving they can speak the language before gaining long-term residency rights. There would also be uncertainty for many EU workers now paying taxes in the UK - what benefits, if any, would they be entitled to?

Would taxes change?

Better off out: The EU has limited power over tax, which is largely a matter for national governments. The exception is VAT, which has bands agreed at the EU level. Outside the EU, the UK would potentially have more flexibility.

Better off in: "Tax avoidance and evasion will reach crippling levels as our economy becomes increasingly wholly owned by foreign multinationals that make tax avoidance in Britain central to their business strategy," argued the pro-European The Observer newspaper in an editorial.

Would Britain's legal system, democratic institutions and law-making process change?

Better off out: It would be a major shot in the arm for British democracy as the Westminster parliament regained its sovereignty and reconnected with voters. The country would be free from the European Arrest Warrant and other law and order measures.

Better off in: Britons benefit from EU employment laws and social protections, which would be stripped away. Withdrawal from the European Arrest Warrant could mean delays for the UK in extraditing suspects from other European countries; and the UK already has some opt-outs from EU labour law, including the Working Time Directive.



Brexit-aren eragina "okerrera egingo du" supermerkatuen dendak garestitu eta EBko produktu batzuk apaletatik desagertuko direlako



Ren eragin osoa Brexit Enpresei eta kontsumitzaileei ez zaie sumatuko datorren urtera arte, elikagaietatik hasi eta eraikuntzako materialetara bitarteko sektoreetan okerrera egingo duten eskasiak direla eta, aduana-aditu nagusiak aditzera eman duenez, idazten du David Perrexila.

Simon Sutcliffe, Blick Rothenberg zerga eta aholkularitza enpresako bazkidea, uste du Gobernuak Brexitaren ondorengo aduana legeak ezartzeko atzerapenak Erresuma Batua Europar Batasunetik irtetearen "eragina leundu" duela eta "gauzak okerrera egingo" dutela azkenean daudenean. 2022ko urtarriletik ekarria.

1ko urtarrilaren 2020ean EBtik atera arren, Gobernuak asko atzeratu ditu iaz indarrean sartzekoak ziren aduana legeak.


Nekazaritzako elikagaien inportazioen Erresuma Batura iritsi aurretik jakinarazteko eskakizuna 1ko urtarrilaren 2022ean sartuko da aurten dagoen urriaren 1eko data atzeratuarekin alderatuta.

Esportazioko osasun ziurtagirien baldintza berriak geroago sartuko dira, datorren urteko uztailaren 1ean.

Animaliak eta landareak gaixotasun, izurrite edo kutsatzaileetatik babesteko kontrolak ere atzeratuko dira 1ko uztailaren 2022era arte, baita inportazioetan Segurtasun eta Segurtasun Aitorpenak egiteko baldintzak ere.


Aduanen deklarazio sistema ere jasotzen duten lege hauek Sutcliffe-k aurkezten dituenean uste du neurri batean –eta batez ere Ipar Irlandan– dagoen janari eta lehengaien urritasunak penintsulan okerrera egingo duela produktu batzuk supermerkatuetako apaletatik desagertzen diren etorkizun hurbilerako.

Sutcliffe, kamioi gidariaren eskasia a aurrenekoa izan zennd mugako gaiak Ipar Irlandan, esan zuen: "Luzapen gehigarri hauek amaitzen direnean, mundu oso batean egongo gara, inportatzaileek Erresuma Batura EBrako esportatzaileek jada egin behar izan duten bezala heldu arte.

"Inplikatutako burokraziaren kostuak esan nahi du merkatari askok ez dituztela EBko produktu batzuk gehiago gordeko.

Zure fruta entregatzeko 10 egunetan Erresuma Batuko portu batean itsatsita dagoela badakizu egiaztatzeko zain, orduan ez duzu inportatzeko trabarik egingo, dendara iritsi baino lehen itzaliko baita.

"Supermerkatuetatik, salamietatik gaztaetara desagertzen diren mota guztietako produktuak aztertzen ari gara, garraiatzeko garestiak izango direlako. Saltoki bitxi batzuek produktu horiek gorde ditzaketen arren, garestiagoak izango dira eta zailagoak dira. aurkitu ".

Supermerkatuen dendak ere prezioen igoera handiak izango dituela gaineratu du, oinarrizko produktuak (hala nola, haragi freskoa, esnea, arrautzak eta barazkiak) inportatzeak merkatariei gehiago kostatuko dielako.

"Saltzaileek ez dute aukera handirik izango gutxienez kontsumitzaileari handitutako kostu batzuk pasatzeari", esan du Sutcliffek. "Beste modu batera esanda, kontsumitzaileek aukera gutxiago izango dute eta asteroko dendagatik gehiago ordaindu beharko dute".

10 zenbakiko bozeramaileak honakoa esan zuen: "Enpresek pandemiatik berreskuratzeko bideratu nahi ditugu mugan eskakizun berriei aurre egin beharrean, horregatik mugako kontrol osoak sartzeko egutegi berri pragmatikoa ezarri dugu.

"Enpresek denbora gehiago izango dute orain 2022an zehar sartuko diren kontrol horiek prestatzeko."

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Europako ministroek diote Erresuma Batuan konfiantza gutxitu dela



Maroš Šefčovič Batzordeko presidenteordeak, ministroei azken garapenen berri ematen, esan du konfiantza berreraiki behar dela eta urtea amaitu baino lehen Erresuma Batuarekin konponbideak aurkitzea espero duela. 

Europako Ministroen Gaietarako Kontseilu Nagusian (irailaren 21ean) bilera egin zen EB-Erresuma Batuko harremanen egoerari buruz, batez ere Irlanda / Ipar Irlandari buruzko protokoloa ezartzeari dagokionez.

Šefčoviček ministroei azken garapenen berri eman zien, besteak beste, Irlandan eta Ipar Irlandan egin duen azken bisitan, eta ministroek Europako Batzordearen ikuspegiaren alde agertu ziren: "EBk Erresuma Batuarekin jarraituko du protokoloaren esparruan irtenbideak aurkitzeko. Ahalegin guztia egingo dugu Ipar Irlandako herritarrei eta enpresei aurreikuspena eta egonkortasuna itzultzeko eta protokoloak eskaintzen dituen aukerak ahalik eta gehien aprobetxatu ahal izateko, merkatu bakarreko sarbidea barne ".


Presidenteordeak esan du ministro asko eztabaidan Kontseiluko bileran hitz egin dutela Erresuma Batua bazkide fidagarria den ala ez kezkatuta. Clement Beaune Frantziako Europako ministroak bilerara zihoala esan zuen brexit -a eta Frantziarekin duela gutxi AUKUS itsaspeko akordioaren inguruan izandako gatazka ez direla nahastu behar. Hala ere, konfiantza arazoa dagoela esan du, Erresuma Batua aliatu estua dela baina brexit akordioa ez dela guztiz errespetatzen eta aurrera egiteko konfiantza beharrezkoa dela esan du. 

Šefčovič-k urte amaierarako Erresuma Batuko arazo garrantzitsu guztiak konpontzea du helburu. Erresuma Batuak protokoloaren 16. artikulua erabiltzeko mehatxuari buruz, Erresuma Batuak babeserako ekintza zehatzak egitea ahalbidetzen badu, protokoloak zailtasun ekonomiko, sozial edo ingurumeneko zailtasunak larriak badira, eta horrek iraun dezake edo merkataritza desbideratu dezake. EBk erreakzionatu beharko luke eta ministroek Batzordeari eskatu zioten edozein gertaeretarako prestatzeko. Hala ere, hori saihestu daitekeela espero du Šefčoviček.

Ipar Irlanda merkataritza desbideratzen ari da dagoeneko, bai inportazioetan bai esportazioetan. Hau da, neurri handi batean, Erresuma Batuak EBrekin jarraitzea aukeratu duen merkataritza akordio oso finaren ondorioz, aukera kaltegarri gutxiago eskaini arren. Babes neurri guztiak mugatu behar dira irismenari eta iraupenari dagokionez. Protokoloaren zazpigarren eranskinean jasotako babes neurriei buruz eztabaidatzeko prozedura korapilatsua ere badago, batzorde mistoari jakinaraztea eskatzen du, hilabetean zain egon daitezkeela bermeak aplikatzeko, aparteko inguruabarrik izan ezean (Erresuma Batuak zalantzarik gabe aldarrikatuko ditu) . Neurriak hiru hilean behin berrikusiko dira, nekez aurkitzen diren kasuetan.


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Britainia Handiak Brexitaren ondorengo merkataritza kontrolak ezartzen ditu



Britainia Handiak asteartean (irailak 14) esan zuen atzeratzen ari zela Brexitaren ondorengo inportazio kontrol batzuk ezartzea, atzera bota zuten bigarren aldia, pandemiaren eta hornidura katearen mundu mailako tentsioak eragindako presioak aipatuz.

Britainia Handia Europar Batasuneko merkatu bakarretik irten zen iazko amaieran, baina Bruselak ez bezala muga kontrolak berehala ezarri zituenean, elikagaiak bezalako salgaien inportazio kontrolak sartzea mailakatu zuen negozioei egokitzeko denbora emateko.

Apirilaren 1etik aurrera kontrolak sartzea dagoeneko sei hilabetez atzeratu ondoren, orain gobernuak 1ko urtarrilaren 2022era itzuli du aduana deklarazio eta kontrol osoak egiteko beharra. Datorren urteko uztailaren 1etik aurrera segurtasun eta segurtasun deklarazioak egin beharko dira.


"Enpresek pandemiaren berreskurapenean arreta jartzea nahi dugu mugan baldintza berriei aurre egin beharrean, horregatik muga kontrol osoak sartzeko egutegi pragmatiko berria ezarri dugu", esan du David Frost Brexit ministroak.

"Enpresek denbora gehiago izango dute orain 2022an zehar sartuko diren kontrol horiek prestatzeko."

Logistika eta aduana sektoreko industria iturriek ere esan dute gobernuaren azpiegiturak ez daudela egiaztapen osoak ezartzeko prest.


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